The 5 Percent Drop That Signals More Than You Think

Why a small shift in outlook could shape the way companies plan their next moves

Goldman Sachs just dropped its 12-month recession odds from 35 percent to 30 percent. On the surface, this looks like a minor update. But that small change tells a bigger story about how decisions are made in complex systems like the economy.

What triggered the shift? The bank said tariffs are no longer as big a threat as before. That means less pressure…