Availability Bias vs Confirmation Bias
Decisions made everyday within an organization rely heavily on the manager's cognitive bias.
Key Takeaways:
Availability bias is a cognitive bias that causes people to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater availability in memory.
Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that causes people to find the information that confirms their beliefs and to discriminate against opposite or unfamiliar opinions.
Understanding the impact of cognitive bias on a business is vital when it comes to the decisions of a manager. It affects the hiring of a candidate, implementing the right or wrong growth strategies, or even failing to implement new technology or processes that can grow the operation. Availability Bias and Confirmation Bias also can affect the individual’s everyday decisions outside of a business setting.
Availability Bias
Availability bias is a cognitive bias that causes people to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater availability in memory. This can be influenced by how recent the memories are, how unusual, or emotionally charged they may be.
Often, we base our decisions on information that is available to us at a given time and forget about information that isn't easily recalled. This leads us to erroneous assumptions. If you don't believe this is true, then just think about how it can affect your decision-making:
Imagine you are on the beach in Hawaii. You're thinking of going for a swim in the ocean. But you think “What about shark attacks?”
Suddenly, that thought pops into your head and completely clouds your view of the situation. You'll be more discouraged to go for a swim, even though you probably be safer in the water than you are on land.
Given that, statistically more people are killed by falling coconuts than shark attacks 15 times more.
Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that causes people to find the information that confirms their beliefs and to discriminate against opposite or unfamiliar opinions.
Let's say you're a red meat eater, then you'll quickly find supporting evidence that eating a juicy steak is beneficial. But what if you're a vegan? You'll look for something to confirm that there is in fact a negative effect of red meat on health. In the end, you're kind of building a “I'm always right ego” around your way of thinking and find evidence everywhere to support it.
Availability Bias and Confirmation Bias Combined
Imagine you've read an article claiming that your cellphone usage might be related to brain cancer. A little while later, you're talking to a friend about the purchase of a new cell phone. What immediately comes to mind: “Hey, I've just read an article about cell phone usage is bad for your health. Are you sure you want that new phone”?
You then research the topic on the internet, and find some articles that backup your idea that cell phones are bad for health, but also some more research that refutes the same idea. Confirmation bias may then lead you to favor the articles confirming your existing belief and discounting those that refute it, even if the latter might be more plentiful and backed up with scientific research.
How can you avoid these biases?
You can avoid these bias traps by simply being aware of them. If you're able to identify that you are experiencing an availability bias, then you can take the right decision. Also, it's a good practice to try avoiding using a single source of information for your research. You can even consider consulting with someone who has a different view on the topic you're thinking about. That way, you are reducing your chances of getting blinded by a confirmation bias.
Simple, but maybe a little easier said than done.